By Kieran Mc Morrow, Werner Roeger (auth.), Paul J. J. Welfens (eds.)
many nations may be faced with getting old populations within the coming a long time. this may crucially impact the commercial outlook for the economic system. inhabitants alterations at once impact the scale of the labour strength and therefore capability employment and output progress. additionally, alterations in demographic traits strongly effect reductions and funding behaviour, the outlook for the general public funds, more than a few monetary marketplace variables and, extra controversially, may well impression at the velocity of productiveness progress in an economic system. as the timing and significance of demographic alterations varies considerably throughout areas, overseas capital flows will play a huge position for the allocation of funding. This publication bargains a entire therapy of getting older comparable concerns in accordance with a 5 quarter overlapping generations version and offers a quantitative evaluation until eventually 2050.
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Additional resources for The Economic and Financial Market Consequences of Global Ageing
24 Meredith (1995) concluded in relation to these household data studies "By using more recent and detailed information on the income and consumption of retired households, the analysis has shown that the savings rates for the elderly calculated in some household level studies may be misleading. It appears that the elderly do dissave, and that the rate of dissaving is very similar to that predicted by a life-cycle model of household behaviour". Meredith's skepticism on the results of household survey data is supported by Miles (1999) who stresses the role played by PA YG pension systems in the results obtained.
This is underlined by the fact that on the basis of, age-specific, health expenditure profiles for the EU, US and Japan that the age structure of the population has big implications for overall health spending in an economy, with spending per capita for a person aged over 65 being 3 to 4 times greater than that of a citizen aged 0-64. How IS AGEING LIKELY TO IMPACT ECONOMICALLY OVER THE NEXT 50 YEARS? rGDP 10% " 8% ---------------- w~ ----------- 6% 4111. 2% 0% 1960 1965 1910 1915 1980 1985 1990 1000 Source: Economic Policy Committee, DECD, World Bank and Commission Services In overall terms therefore, the scale of the task facing governments in relation to controlling health and pensions expenditure over the next 50 years should not be underestimated.
2=00. / 1810 1890 2000 Source : World Bank and Commission Services How STRONG IS THE SPECIFIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEMOGRAPHICS AND ? : While it is accepted that demographics is one of the three most important variables in determining private savings trends, establishing the strength of that link has, and is, proving problematic. From an analysis of national, private and public savings trends in the five areas, one can only reliably say that national savings have been on a downward trend in all 5 areas over the last number of decades and that there is clear evidence of Ricardian equivalence effects at work.
The Economic and Financial Market Consequences of Global Ageing by Kieran Mc Morrow, Werner Roeger (auth.), Paul J. J. Welfens (eds.)